The adoption of the provisions of the US four-stage disarmament plan by the government of Joseph Aoun has triggered wide domestic and international reactions. The plan, welcomed by Trump’s special envoy Thomas Barrack, sets 31 December 2025 as the deadline for Hezbollah’s complete disarmament. Under the arrangement, Israel would halt military operations and gradually withdraw from its occupied positions in southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese government would deploy the army to collect and destroy Hezbollah’s weapons. The final stage would see an international reconstruction conference hosted by the US, Saudi Arabia, France, and Qatar.
Hezbollah and the Resistance Front’s Response
Hezbollah denounced the decision as a “grave sin” and part of a “strategy of surrender” to US dictates that directly serve Israeli interests. It warned that disarmament would undermine national sovereignty and leave Lebanon defenseless against threats from the south. The withdrawal of Hezbollah and Amal Movement ministers from the cabinet meeting symbolized the resistance front’s outright rejection. In an official statement, Hezbollah stressed that priorities should be liberating occupied territories, ending Israeli aggression, and strengthening defensive capabilities. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also cautioned against Tel Aviv’s opportunism, noting that efforts to disarm the resistance were not new, but Hezbollah’s missile and operational strength remained a key deterrent factor.
Security and Strategic Implications
Disarming Hezbollah is more than a domestic decision — it carries sweeping geopolitical consequences. Over the past two decades, Hezbollah’s military capabilities, from the 33-day war to supporting the resistance axis in Syria and Gaza, have been the main check on Israeli aggression. Removing this capacity would diminish the strategic depth of anti-Israeli resistance and increase the likelihood of Israeli pre-emptive strikes. In such a scenario, the Lebanese army, constrained by logistical and political limits, would be unable to replace this deterrence. This shift could entirely tilt the balance of power in Israel’s favor.
Social Consequences and Risk of National Disunity
Within Lebanon, Hezbollah is not only a military actor but also a guarantor of security, particularly in the Shiite-majority south and the Bekaa Valley. Stripping away this defensive arm could deepen mistrust between local communities and the political structure, widening sectarian divides. Street protests by Hezbollah supporters in Beirut already signal the start of a wave of public discontent that could threaten the country’s political stability. At the same time, the move presents Israel with a golden opportunity to pursue its border and security objectives without the cost of deterrence — and even to revive scenarios of reoccupation in southern Lebanon.
NOURNEWS