When the negotiations between Iran and the US, facilitated by Oman, moved to Rome and news of progress in indirect talks emerged, many anticipated an immediate and explicit reaction from Israel's Prime Minister. However, Netanyahu, in one of his few speeches just before the second round of negotiations, made no reference to the talks; his strange absence from the discourse carried far more meaning than any overt statement could have.
This silence was not due to ignorance but rather a deliberate decision; Tel Aviv has recognized that the play in this round of negotiations occurs not in the realm of public diplomacy but behind closed doors and under the shadow of unofficial pressure tactics. While Israel may not be sitting at the negotiating table, it is far from absent; in fact, it is now more determined than ever to secure its foothold in the US decision-making process regarding Iran's nuclear file through intelligence, diplomatic tools, and military threats.
Israel, Out of Frame, Observing in the Shadows
What is outwardly perceived as Israel's absence from the negotiation process is, in fact, a form of "covert tactical presence." The visit of David Barnea (head of Mossad) and Ron Dermer (Minister of Strategic Affairs) to Rome, just days after the second round of talks began, is a clear indication of Tel Aviv's efforts to operate behind the scenes. In a secret meeting with Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, they not only expressed their security concerns but also sought to participate in defining the red lines of the agreement without taking direct responsibility for its outcomes.
This two-edged strategy allows Israel to simultaneously criticize the negotiations while exerting influence over them. Israeli analysts believe that the Zionist regime prefers to stay out of the media spotlight to effectively contain what it perceives as a threat to its national security without incurring the political costs of directly opposing the US government.
When the Goal is System Change, Not Just Enrichment
At the core of Tel Aviv's security strategy, what is most concerning is not just Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons, but the continuation of the Islamic Republic as the ideological and technological foundation for this program. Ron Ben-Yishai, a military analyst for Yedioth Ahronoth, explicitly states that Israel's goal is not only to destroy facilities but to completely dismantle the decision-making structure in Tehran.
This position has been reiterated over the years, but what distinguishes the current context is that, according to Zionist circles, the historic opportunity that was said to have arisen has been lost with Trump's decision to halt operations, placing Tel Aviv in a reactive position. Israel is now deeply concerned that Washington, by conceding to Iran, will permanently squander this opportunity.
Balance of Fear and American Deterrence
Contrary to Tel Aviv's traditional rhetoric about "red lines," what is evident in recent analyses is a form of implicit acceptance of mutual deterrence. Haim Asaf, head of the Impact Institute, candidly states that Israel today is a "hungry tiger"; powerful in military terms but ineffective strategically, as Washington holds the reins of its restraint.
According to him, the US is sending an indirect message to Tehran: "We have restrained Israel; now it is your turn to be serious at the negotiating table." Such a message reflects the United States' attempt to balance power in the region without becoming embroiled in the costs of another war.
This approach by Trump will never be seen by Iranian officials as a concession to be reciprocated, as Iran has repeatedly asserted its capability and willingness to punish Israel in response to any malfeasance from Tel Aviv, and it will not hesitate to act decisively against this regime.
Details of Negotiations Matter, Not Generalities
The newspaper Haaretz published an analysis stating that there is still a long way to go for optimism regarding an agreement. At this stage, the challenge lies in details that can easily shift the path from understanding to hostility. The complexity of this phase has also limited Israel’s maneuvering space. As an agreement is taking shape, the terms of which remain unclear, Tel Aviv is compelled to design its threat and deterrence strategy based on vague assumptions and await developments.
A range of evidence suggests that the Zionist regime is actively seeking to play a role in the outcome of the negotiations by mobilizing its hidden and explicit political and intelligence capacities, and it will continue this approach as long as an agreement contrary to Tel Aviv's interests does not materialize.
Tel Aviv’s Blueprint for Covert Presence
Israel is redefining its position regarding Iran's nuclear file; shifting from a direct and noisy player to a quietly calculated influencer. Netanyahu's silence does not stem from indifference to the negotiations but from planning to maintain maneuverability at decision-making moments. Israel's absence from the negotiating table does not imply a withdrawal from the scene; rather, it reflects a narrative of a stealthy and influential presence.
NOURNEWS