Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), arrived in Tehran on the afternoon of Wednesday, April 16, at a critical juncture.
This trip is significant not only because of the technical consultations and meetings with senior Iranian officials it entails, but also because it takes place on the eve of the next phase of indirect Iran-US talks in Muscat. Grossi’s meetings with Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Eslami at such a sensitive time are not merely a follow-up on the Board of Governors’ resolution from December 2023, but also a prelude to redefining the Iran- relationship for the crucial period ahead.
Before the adoption of the Board of Governors’ resolution against Iran in December 2023, all eyes had been on October 25, 2025, seen as a key milestone in Iran’s nuclear case—a date marking the expiration of Iran’s arms restrictions under Resolution 2231. However, the issuance of a political resolution by the disrupted that trajectory, introducing new and unexpected challenges. Now, political analysts believe the coming months—leading up to the summer of 2025—will be decisive, as the actions and reactions of the remaining JCPOA signatories could shape the future dramatically. If the continues along its current trajectory, a further complication of the situation seems highly likely.
In this context, the impartial and apolitical role of the Agency is of paramount importance. Iran has so far provided the highest possible level of cooperation with the ; its inspectors regularly and extensively visit Iranian nuclear facilities in accordance with the Safeguards Agreement. In fact, many of the ’s own technical reports have affirmed Iran’s transparency. Nevertheless, political interpretations and decision-making at the agency’s leadership level have repeatedly obstructed the closure of files and contributed to a murky atmosphere.
Faced with this situation, Grossi stands at a crossroads: either continue to deviate from a neutral, technical path and submit politically charged reports to the Board of Governors—which could revive tension-building dynamics at the UN Security Council—or reflect the reality of Iran’s broad cooperation, thereby paving the way for a new political understanding. Without a doubt, Grossi’s final report—expected by spring 2025—will have a direct impact on the future of Iran-US dialogue and the fate of the nuclear agreement.
At the same time, the United States is also closely watching the outcome of this trip. According to American officials, the first round of indirect talks was “constructive,” and in the second round—scheduled for Saturday in Muscat—both sides aim to outline a framework for nuclear-related discussions. If the can step out from under the shadow of politics and assert itself as a neutral, technical, and legal arbiter, there is reason to hope that the negotiations could move toward a realistic and viable agreement.
NOURNEWS