The decisions made by Iran and the US in the coming days and weeks will determine whether tensions escalate towards war or if diplomacy will find another opportunity.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has once again adopted a threatening stance, declaring that if Iran does not reach an agreement regarding its nuclear program, it will face "the most severe bombings." These remarks, made during a recent interview with NBC, are part of Washington's maximum pressure strategy against Tehran. However, this time, Trump's tone was noticeably more belligerent than before. Instead of emphasizing diplomacy, he spoke directly about military action, a matter that could escalate tensions between the two countries to a dangerous level.
Iran's Decisive Response: Threat for Threat
In response to these threats, Tehran has reacted with clear and calculated statements. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution emphasized during the Eid al-Fitr prayers: "If any wrongdoing or plot is carried out by the Americans, they will certainly face a strong reciprocal strike." This position indicates that Iran will not leave any threat unanswered, and any hostile action will be met with a decisive and immediate response.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran also issued a clear statement yesterday affirming the full readiness of the armed forces to confront any hostile actions. Brigadier General Hajizadeh, commander of the Aerospace Force of the Guards, stated in an interview that "the Americans have at least 10 bases with 50,000 troops in the region; they are sitting in a glass box." This message carries a clear warning: if an attack occurs, US bases in the region will be Iran's primary targets.
Foreign Ministry's Position and Diplomatic Warning
The Iranian Foreign Ministry also took a firm stance in response to Trump's threats. The spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry stated: "The explicit threat to bomb Iran by the head of a country is a clear confrontation with the essence and nature of international peace and security." He also emphasized that such a threat constitutes a blatant violation of the United Nations Charter and the safeguards regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Following this stance, Iran submitted an official note of warning to the US Interests Section at the Swiss Embassy. In this note, the Islamic Republic of Iran condemned any hostile actions and declared that it would respond immediately and decisively to any wrongdoing. The head of the Swiss Embassy also announced that he would promptly relay the matter to the US government.
Signs of Approaching the Brink of War
In the context of international relations, the brink of war refers to a point where the likelihood of conflict increases, yet war is not yet inevitable. In the relations between Iran and the US, four specific signs may indicate a nearing of this point:
Increased Mutual Threats
In recent months, not only have the rhetoric from both sides intensified, but practical actions also reflect the rising tensions. Washington pursues a comprehensive sanctions policy and maximum pressure, while Iran has increased its nuclear activities and emphasized its deterrent capabilities. Limited military tensions among allies of both sides, such as cyber-attacks and sporadic clashes between resistance forces and Israel, have also exacerbated the crisis.
Reduced Communication Channels
Experience shows that whenever diplomacy between two countries has failed or reached a deadlock, the likelihood of conflict increases. Currently, direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington have come to a halt, and diplomacy efforts by intermediaries like Oman and Qatar have yielded minimal tangible results so far. After receiving Trump's letter through the UAE, Iran announced that it had sent a response via Oman, in which it addressed the threats and reiterated its independence while expressing readiness for indirect dialogue.
Increased Military Movements
Military activities in the region, from the deployment of aircraft carriers and strategic B-2 bombers by the US to military exercises by Iranian forces, indicate that both sides are preparing for potential scenarios. Additionally, the US military has raised its alert level at bases in the region, an action typically taken before a conflict.
Strategic Distrust
Neither Iran nor the US views the other as a reliable actor in negotiations. From Tehran's perspective, Washington is not committed to its agreements, with the US withdrawal from the JCPOA serving as a prime example of this unpredictable behavior. Conversely, the Trump administration claims that Iran is unwilling to negotiate a deal that includes greater control over its nuclear and military activities and regional policies. This level of distrust undermines any deterrent mechanisms aimed at preventing war.
Is War Inevitable?
Despite all these signs, war is still not certain. Currently, three main factors could prevent direct conflict:
The High Costs of War for Both Sides: A military attack on Iran would not only destabilize the region but would also directly threaten US bases and allies, including Israel. On the other hand, Iran is well aware that entering a widespread war could damage the country's economy.
Intervention by Third Actors: European countries, Russia, and China would suffer from a war in the Persian Gulf and have therefore initiated efforts to reduce tensions.
Indirect Diplomatic Efforts: Despite the reduction in direct communications, diplomacy remains an option on the table. Increased political and diplomatic activities in the region and some media reports regarding indirect talks between Iran and the US signal attempts to avert military conflict.
Iran and the US find themselves at a critical juncture. Trump's threats, Iran's vehement responses, and military movements in the region all indicate that the risk of conflict is greater than ever. However, the diplomatic path has not been completely closed off. Although conditions have approached the brink of war, the occurrence of war still depends on the decisions of both parties, the behavior of regional allies, and possibly a miscalculation. Analysts in strategic affairs assess that the likelihood of a political resolution between Iran and the US is currently much higher than the occurrence of war; however, any reckless action or reaction from either side could dramatically change the fate of this crisis.
NOURNEWS