Nournews: Domestic and regional developments, particularly the political changes in the country, as well as the security crises in the region and changes at the international level, placed Iran in a complex position. Overcoming these conditions requires structural reforms, reviewing economic and diplomatic policies, and intelligence in management.
The year 2024 turned into a critical and decisive year for Iran, just like many parts of the world. While many countries faced unexpected and complex developments, Iran faced unprecedented economic, political, and social challenges at the heart of global developments.
Inside the country, economic problems emerged more deeply than before. Economic crises such as imbalances and severe fluctuations in the capital market and the devaluation of the national currency led to the formation of an unfavorable psychological environment regarding the possibility of economic improvement in the country. The condition even influenced Iran’s capital market. The events of 2024, particularly from the lenses of domestic and international developments, show that the complexities governing Iran’s relationship with the world are very serious and can have deep impacts on different dimensions of governance.
The unexpected change of administration after the martyrdom of Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s former president, and the developments resulting from it, the security and regional crises like the Gaza War and the Levant crisis, as well as the reelection of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, were factors that have had deep impacts on Iran and its strategies. The effects of the mentioned developments, along with events that can be added to the current challenges during the coming months, have made reviewing and reevaluating economic policies and foreign relations unavoidable.
Administration change and domestic developments
One of the main domestic developments in the current Iranian year was the martyrdom of Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi during a helicopter crash, which was followed by a wave of changes in the governmental and political structures of Iran. After the incident, significant changes occurred in the country’s economic, social, and political policies. While the change of government could be seen as an opportunity to review policies and implement new structural reforms, it seems that a clear and innovative strategy to face the likely new challenges and crises has not been developed and used as a basis for the activities of different sectors of the country.
Particularly in the economic field, imbalances and financial crises, along with political changes, have led to a reduction in public trust and a lack of confidence in economic decisions, which can be followed by destructive psychological effects.
The Levant crisis and its effects on Iran’s regional policies
At the regional level, the crisis in the Levant and the Gaza War had a significant impact on Iran’s policy. The war in Gaza, Lebanon, and the domestic crisis in Syria, which eventually led to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government, placed Iran in a complex situation.
The crisis in the Levant increased pressures on Iran regarding regional support and interaction with neighboring countries, in addition to its political complexities, which was followed by unexpected economic effects. In the face of these crises, particularly in the fields of security and political issues, Iran has had to adopt new policies and formulate appropriate regional strategies that include economic measures in addition to political and security dimensions.
Economic policies and foreign relations
This Iranian year, particularly after regional and international developments, the economic pressures resulting from sanctions and global challenges increased on Iran, and new policies were put on the agenda to overcome the new conditions. In line with this, strengthening economic collaboration with newly-emerged economies and new economic blocs such as BRICS, the Shanghai Organization, and the Eurasian Union was proposed as a strategy.
Continuing collaboration with these countries can provide an opportunity for Iran to not only reduce its reliance on Western markets but also benefit from export opportunities and foreign investments.
BRICS, the Shanghai Organization, and the Eurasian Union, as complexes with high economic and trade potential, can help Iran resist economic pressures and international sanctions. Particularly, member states of BRICS provide many opportunities for the export of Iranian products and the absorption of foreign investments due to their economic and population diversity. Additionally, collaborating with these organizations can free Iran from the pressures of Western sanctions and provide opportunities in industry and infrastructure fields.
Iran’s capital market and the trust crisis
Along with the political and economic developments mentioned above, Iran’s capital market this year turned into one of the biggest domestic crises. The crisis, particularly due to short-term and non-expert policies in the fields of economy and lack of transparency in decisions, led investors to turn to informal systems, and as a result, large amounts of capital were withdrawn from the formal market. Iran must move toward structural reforms in the capital market and put aside short-term policies to attract the trust of investors and economic activists again. Creating sustainable infrastructure, transparency in the value of currency and interests, as well as managing economic fluctuations, are among the requirements of the reforms.
The necessity of structural reforms and strengthening economic diplomacy
Given the crisis and challenges of this Iranian year, Iran must take effective steps toward structural reforms. The reforms must include strengthening the private sector, reducing government intervention, and enhancing economic relations with newly-emerging economies. Also, Iran must seek to activate economic diplomacy with member states of BRICS, the Shanghai Organization, and the Eurasian Union to use the export opportunities and foreign investments.
Given that the crises of this Iranian year indicated Iran's vulnerability to domestic and global developments, overcoming these crises is only possible through the adoption of strategic and long-term approaches, paving the way for a stable and successful future for the country.
The next Iranian year should be a year in which Iran, through structural reforms, a review of economic policies and diplomacy, and intelligence in management, overcomes the challenges of this year. By avoiding short-term routines and adopting long-term and strategic policies, Iran must take serious steps toward addressing both global and domestic challenges with hope and determination.
NOURNEWS