Nournews: At the same time, mediating negotiations are underway in the region, and all eyes have been fixed on Saturday. The day could be a turning point for the Gaza crisis, but it is unlikely to be an endpoint for it.
As the deadline set by Trump for the release of all Israeli prisoners approaches, the Gaza crisis has entered a sensitive and complicated stage. The deadline was announced under the condition that Trump himself had an active role in the ceasefire negotiations, putting Netanyahu under pressure to reach an agreement. However, with his current threat to resume the war, he has changed the conditions in a way that not only Hamas but also Israel and even American politicians have been placed in a difficult position.
Hamas, regarding strategic calculations, has no reason to accept the deadline. The group knows that adherence or non-adherence to Trump’s request will not cause any changes in the policies of Israel and America in the end. From the perspective of Hamas leaders, Israel and the U.S. seek to displace the settlers of Gaza, and any retreat against their threats will only worsen the situation. At the same time, the release of all prisoners at once will destroy the only leverage Hamas has, while the negotiations have not yet reached a point where the group feels it has all the required concessions.
Netanyahu between internal and external pressure
On the other hand, Trump has not only put Hamas under heavy pressure with this deadline but also put Netanyahu in a difficult situation. He is faced with heavy pressure from far-right factions who want the continuation of the war and the final blow to Hamas. On the other hand, the majority of the Israeli population, which supports a ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners, expects Netanyahu to stay on the path of agreement. This dilemma has put the Prime Minister of Israel in a situation where any decision will have heavy costs for him.
Additionally, Netanyahu knows that returning to war doesn’t necessarily guarantee victory over Hamas. The continuation of the war could lead to the killing of the remaining prisoners and probably result in heavy political and military costs for Israel without any victory. At the same time, Netanyahu is not sure that if he resumes the war, Trump will not intervene and force him to stop it. Such uncertainty will make decision-making very difficult for the Prime Minister of Israel.
Diplomatic moves for preserving the agreement
In such an ambiguous and tense environment, mediators in the region and Doha are seeking to preserve the exchange of prisoners and the ceasefire. The ongoing negotiations have focused on Israel's adherence to the humanitarian agreement and Hamas’s agreement to free a number of prisoners. Israeli media have emphasized that Netanyahu is trying to limit the message of the deadline to the three prisoners who were supposed to be freed on Saturday, and not all the captives, to prevent the crisis from intensifying.
Despite all attempts, uncertainty still remains. There is no guarantee that the fragile agreement reached so far will remain after Trump’s deadline. The crisis is considered a serious test for the mediators in the region. If they fail to manage the conflict, the possibility of the resumption of war and more instability will increase.
Challenges facing Trump
If, by Saturday noon, all prisoners are not freed – which seems nearly certain – what matters is how Trump reacts. If he decides to resume the war, he will face heavy consequences. After weeks of relative ceasefire, returning to extensive Gaza bombing could cause a wave of global protests and even increase domestic pressures on governments supporting Israel.
Also, the resumption of war could intensify the political gap inside Israel. Netanyahu, who is facing a crisis of legitimacy in public opinion, cannot easily bear the consequences of such a move. Returning to conflict will put him in a difficult position because public opinion in Israel does not accept the agreement being set aside easily, particularly when there is no outlook for ending the war militarily.
On the other hand, if Trump doesn’t carry out his threats, it could present an image of his uncertainty. He had contradictory stances regarding Ukraine and China as well, and now, the way he reacts to this crisis could cause more extended consequences for U.S. foreign policy.
Saturday: A turning point, not an endpoint
Considering these factors, it seems that Saturday will be a turning point in the Gaza crisis, but it will not be an endpoint. Hamas still emphasizes preserving its bargaining position, and it is unlikely that it will give ground. Israel is reluctant to destroy the agreement completely because such a move could intensify Netanyahu’s domestic crisis.
All in all, what makes the deadline more important is not just the destiny of the Gaza war but its effect on Trump’s position in international politics. If he doesn’t carry out his threats, it will be considered a weakness in his ability to impose tough policies. If he wants to resume the war, he must be ready for diplomatic pressures and new political challenges he may face.
Because of this, Saturday will be a game-changer day, but to what extent it shows whether the main players of this crisis can manage the tensions or not. The future path depends on the capabilities of the two sides to preserve balance and prevent total collapse rather than depending on set deadlines.
NOURNEWS