Political developments in Europe and the rise of extreme right-wing currents on the continent in recent years, especially on the eve of the crucial 2025 elections, will have far-reaching effects on intra-European structures, international affairs, and global policies. These paradigm shifts, which could intensify under the influence of Trump's election as the US president, may lead to a redefinition of relations between countries and power blocs at the global level. Examining and evaluating the upcoming elections in various European countries and their connection to global developments can help provide a clearer picture of Europe's future trajectory.
Paradigm shifts in European policies
One of the most notable shifts in European policies is the turn towards extreme right-wing parties. Among the most important elections in 2025 are the parliamentary elections in Germany and Norway, and the presidential election in Poland. Germany, a key member of the European Union, will see the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the upcoming elections, which has gained significant support. This party not only opposes pro-Ukraine policies but also advocates for reduced European cooperation with global unions and even less reliance on the European Union. Such changes could mean a weakening of European institutions and the existing order on the continent. This trend, especially in Germany, which has deep ties with EU member states, could lead to fractures in Europe's key political and economic structures.
In Norway, with the rising popularity of the Progress Party (FrP), which strongly favors anti-EU and nationalist policies, an extreme right-wing government will likely emerge. These changes will have an impact not only at the national level but also on Europe's relations with the European Union. Norway, as a non-EU member, could become a model for other countries moving towards isolationism and reduced ties with the EU. Globally, these tendencies could influence international trade and political negotiations, challenging existing structures.
The Polish presidential election, given the internal tensions between the ruling party and the presidency, will directly affect European and global policies. This election could alter Poland's geopolitical situation and change its relations with the EU and neighboring countries, particularly regarding the Ukraine crisis. If the opposition parties, which lean towards Russia, win, Poland may become an anti-EU actor, setting the stage for significant shifts in the Union's policies.
Impact of paradigm shifts on Europe-Iran relations
In this new context, Europe's relations with Iran, particularly in political, economic, and JCPOA-related matters, are subject to significant changes. The ongoing shifts in European domestic policies are likely to result in a decreased European inclination to uphold the JCPOA and engagement policies with Iran. European right-wing currents, opposed to liberal and multilateral policies, may call for increased pressure on Iran regarding the nuclear issue. These paradigm shifts in Europe, especially in Germany and France, which played pivotal roles in the nuclear agreement, could lead to weakened international support for Iran and further complications in Iran's economic relations with Europe.
The JCPOA will reach the end of its 10-year term in October 2025, and according to the agreement and UNSC Resolution 2231, all nuclear-related restrictions on Iran will be lifted. If European policies change and right-wing parties gain power, there is a high probability of intensified opposition to the end of Iran's nuclear restrictions, for which there are already many indications. In such a scenario, Iran should prepare for increased pressure from Europe. Although due to Europe's failure to fulfill its JCPOA commitments, there are currently no significant economic relations between Iran and Europe, the emergence of a new situation in the EU could lead to closer cooperation between the US and Europe to increase economic pressure on Iran by imposing further restrictions on Iran's economic relations with other countries.
Global implications of the shifts
Globally, the rise of nationalist and right-wing tendencies in Europe could strengthen anti-globalization and anti-international institution fronts, such as the UN and NATO.
These changes could also impact global security systems. With the rise of right-wing power in Europe, there is a possibility of reduced security cooperation among NATO members. This situation might create a favorable environment for China and Russia to expand their influence in Eastern and even Western Europe. Under these circumstances, shifts in European countries' defense and strategic policies could lead to new security and military crises on a global scale.
In summary, paradigm shifts in Europe will not only affect the continent's internal structures but could also lead to major developments in global policies and international relations. In this context, Iran should prepare for new developments, and through active diplomacy and broader engagements, particularly by strengthening relations with neighbors and enhancing ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and the Eurasian Union, continue to safeguard and advance its global interests.
NOURNEWS