Nournews: The year 2025 has become a crucial year in international politics, as the end of the restrictions specified in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement against Iran’s peaceful nuclear program approaches.
Under such conditions, European countries are seeking to redefine their policies regarding Iran. The recent statements by Emmanuel Macron and reports from sources such as Axios emphasize that Europe is worried about losing supervisory and economic tools over Iran’s nuclear program.
On January 6, Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, in a meeting with foreign ambassadors, said that Iran’s nuclear program is reaching a no-return point. He added that France needs a strategy and strategic dialogue about Iran with the administration of Donald Trump and will do this.
He also stated that the leaders of countries must ask themselves whether they want to activate the mechanism of returning sanctions against Iran (snapback mechanism) before the month of October in the current year.
Now, European countries are attempting to pursue a policy between pressure and negotiations. This approach, which is somehow a complement to the inaction and non-commitment of the United States and Europe regarding fulfilling their commitments in the JCPOA, while strengthening the atmosphere of distrust between Iran and the West, could pave the ground for a new round of tensions, fueling disagreements in the not-so-warm ambiance between Iran and Western countries.
Europe’s Challenges Regarding Iran
While Iran, due to the illegal withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA and Europe’s refusal to fulfill its commitments, has set aside any supra-safeguard limitations based on Article 36 of this agreement and is advancing its peaceful nuclear program within the framework of national requirements under the continuous supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Europe, disregarding Iran’s rights and citing the pretext of increasing uranium enrichment to 60% and the development of advanced nuclear technologies by our country, claims that Iran is approaching the “nuclear breakout point” and intends to pressure Iran by imposing a new agreement or extending the current limitations.
Moreover, European countries, citing the blatant lie of Iranian arms sales to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, are attempting to turn the long-standing defense relations between Iran and Russia, which have no connection to the Ukraine conflict, into a new pretext for pressuring our country and portraying Iran as a threatening geopolitical actor.
Under the "sunset clause" of the JCPOA and United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, the restrictions on Iran's peaceful nuclear activities are set to fully expire in October 2025. Europe and the United States, which have so far unlawfully and under baseless pretexts used economic sanctions as a tool to impose their political will on Iran, are concerned about the weakening of this approach to supposedly contain Iran. Within this framework, European countries, by raising the possibility of triggering the snapback mechanism—an action that, when met with Iran's reciprocal measures, would further complicate the current situation—continue to seek the use of coercive tools to pressure our country.
European Objectives and Strategies: Cooperation or Confrontation?
Europe, while striving for an agreement that imposes further restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and reduces its regional role, is attempting to impose its political views on Iran by leveraging the threat of triggering the snapback mechanism.
Consequences of Europe’s Use of the Snapback Mechanism
If Europe triggers the snapback mechanism, the conditions of the parties to the JCPOA will revert to the pre-agreement era.
In such circumstances, with the annulment of the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the set of sanctions imposed on Iran before the signing of the JCPOA will be reactivated. This is while, despite the non-annulment of Resolution 2231, a significant and influential part of these sanctions is currently being enforced under US pressure, and even Europe is adhering to them.
Considering this reality, it becomes evident that triggering the snapback mechanism will not bring about any significant change in Iran's current sanctions situation.
Meanwhile, Iran's peaceful nuclear capabilities have significantly increased compared to ten years ago (the beginning of the JCPOA), and the conditions that the US and Europe consider as a threat from Iran will undoubtedly intensify with the implementation of the snapback and Iran's response to this action.
Furthermore, if Europe intends to trigger the snapback, the recent agreements between Iran and Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to expand cooperation and resolve pending issues will also face challenges.
Role of the US and Other Global Actors
Reports, such as the recent Axios analysis, indicate that the US government and its European allies consider the approach towards Iran to be one of the major challenges of 2025. As mentioned in the Axios report, failure to reach an agreement by mid-year could complicate the current situation and plunge West Asia into a new phase of instability.
NOURNEWS