According to regional experts, neither the US, Europe, nor regional powers seem eager to engage in another large-scale war. However, Israel's recent military posturing and statements from its officials indicate a readiness to confront Hezbollah in Lebanon. This has raised alarms internationally, as many believe that such a conflict could quickly escalate and have unpredictable consequences.
Israeli media personality Menashe Amir commented on the situation, stating that due to the current global and regional context, a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be just the beginning, and the situation could quickly spiral out of control. Martin Griffiths, the United Nations' humanitarian chief, described a potential war between Israel and Lebanon as "apocalyptic," while US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that another conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could easily expand into a regional war with dire consequences for the Middle East.
Euronews also reported, based on analysts' predictions, that "Iran's other allied militias in this case will show a more aggressive reaction compared to what happened to Hamas, and some experts also warn of an influx of ideologically motivated militias into the region."
The prospect of a new war or the expansion of the Gaza war to southern Lebanon has raised doubts about the Zionist army's ability to confront multiple fronts. According to an Associated Press report, "The Israeli army is under pressure after nearly nine months of conflict in Gaza, while Hezbollah is believed to have an arsenal of about 150,000 rockets and missiles that can reach anywhere in Israel."
The Zionist regime is presumably more vulnerable in a confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon compared to its war with Hamas. In addition, domestic and international protests against Israel's crimes are on the rise. Given these circumstances, will Benjamin Netanyahu take the risk of a direct confrontation with Hezbollah and its consequences?
Speaking to Nournews, international relations expert Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh believes that Netanyahu has already initiated a form of all-out war against Hezbollah without officially declaring it. Falahatpishe suggests that Netanyahu's primary goal is to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure and eliminate its influential leaders through targeted assassinations, rather than a large-scale ground invasion of southern Lebanon. He emphasizes that a ground invasion would make the Israeli army more vulnerable and unite the Lebanese people in defense of Hezbollah.
Israel is unlikely to take such a risk unless it is assured of the support of the United States, its most important strategic ally. However, public statements from U.S. officials do not indicate such support. The current state of international relations and the crisis in West Asia also suggest that the U.S. is not inclined to endorse such a war. With the upcoming elections, the U.S. seems more focused on the war in Ukraine and competition with China, and public opinion in the country does not favor another direct military engagement.
However, Israel may create a situation that would present the U.S. with a fait accompli.
Referring to the assassination attempt on Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Diako Hosseini, an expert on strategic issues, told Nournews that "Israel's actions, while contrary to international law, have clearly crossed Iran's red lines, with the aim of provoking Tehran into taking serious retaliatory action that would ultimately draw the U.S. into the conflict."
Hosseini added that Netanyahu is concerned about the formation of a new Iranian government with a mandate for constructive engagement with the world, as well as the possibility of Kamala Harris winning the U.S. presidential election. He suggested that escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could weaken the Democrats and strengthen the Republican campaign and Donald Trump, Netanyahu's preferred candidate.
Hosseini views the assassination attempt on Haniyeh not merely as an isolated incident but as a political message to Iran, intended to provoke Tehran and divert public and political attention from the atrocities in Gaza to Iran, while also drawing the U.S. into a confrontation with Iran. However, he emphasized that Iran, based on its past experiences, will not fall into Netanyahu's trap and will respond in a calculated and legal manner at the appropriate time and place to thwart Netanyahu's objectives.
Khalil al-Hayya, a senior Hamas official, also stated in Tehran that neither Iran nor Hamas seeks a regional war, but the recent atrocity [the assassination attempt on Ismail Haniyeh] must be punished.
It seems unlikely that the U.S., Europe, or regional countries would want to initiate another war with far-reaching consequences. Israel, on its own, does not have the capacity to manage a new war on multiple fronts. Iran's response, as in the past, will not be according to Israel's wishes or plans. However, if the warmongering Israeli prime minister insists on escalating the conflict in the region, his only option may be to present the U.S. with a fait accompli. In such a scenario, if Israel launches a full-scale ground invasion of Lebanon with the aim of destroying Hezbollah, a key pillar of the axis of resistance, Iran would naturally not leave its ally unsupported. Moreover, Iran now has better access and a land route through Iraq and Syria to provide more tangible support to Hezbollah compared to Hamas.
Therefore, while initiating a new war would be a high-risk move for Israel, their focus on Hezbollah and particularly Iran can be seen as part of their well-worn "Iranophobia" strategy and an attempt to form a coalition against Tehran. Despite the warm welcome Netanyahu received from members of the U.S. Congress, he himself likely understands that forming a coalition against Iran is a futile endeavor. This is why he needs to engage in adventurism, such as the recent assassination attempt in Tehran early Wednesday morning, to sell the fear of Iran's potential response to both the Zionist regime in the occupied territories and its allies. Or perhaps, with Trump's support, he may feel emboldened to justify an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
In reality, Israel does not have the capability to destroy either Hezbollah or, by extension, Iran. Instead, they seek to weaken Iran and its allies by inflicting serious damage to their military and nuclear infrastructure, which would have consequences akin to an all-out war.
This situation underscores the need for influential powers in the region to act responsibly and for the international community to heed the warnings about the potential consequences of such a war. The fact that U.S. officials claim they had no prior knowledge of the terrorist act in Tehran does not absolve them of their responsibility as Israel's strategic ally and primary supporter. Just a few days ago, when most members of the U.S. Congress gave a standing ovation to the notorious war criminal, they were effectively encouraging Netanyahu to continue his atrocities. It is noteworthy that neither the U.S. nor Europe has condemned this blatant terrorist act on Iranian soil. Is this not an incentive for the criminal gang to continue their violations of international law and norms?
NOURNEWS