Nournews: After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government on Dec. 8 and the transition of power to the opponents, Syria entered a new, challenging phase that can be considered one of the most important and complex phases since the beginning of the internal crisis in this country. Now, based on the announcement of regional media and the plans to hold the “National Conference of Syria” on January 4-5 in Damascus, the process of forming a new governmental structure has been placed on the agenda. This phase will probably be one of the most difficult in the country, particularly in terms of power division and the management of interests.

Political challenge: Power division and new structure

The process of power division in Syria will face many serious challenges due to the diversity of political, ethnic, and religious groups and the interference of regional and trans-regional countries. In the upcoming national conference, in addition to decision-making about how the new constitution will be drafted, the framework of the transitional government and, naturally, the way of power division among different groups will be determined.

The presence of various representatives from different sectors of Syrian society, including youths, civil organizations, and representatives of religious groups, shows attempts to make the process inclusive. However, the inherent conflict of interests among internal and external players may present serious obstacles to this process.

On the other hand, although the announcement of the dissolution of armed groups, including Ha'yat al-Tahrir al-Sham, is considered an important step toward reducing tensions, its implementation seems difficult due to scattered weapons and the prominent role of armed groups in the power structure.

Fragile security and crisis management

After the fall of Assad's government, the security situation in Syria has improved relatively, despite numerous threats. In areas that previously witnessed widespread chaos, relative calm has been established, but scattered protests in Alawite areas show that security remains fragile. Managing cultural and religious diversity, along with addressing security concerns, are among the priorities of Syria's new ruling body. Although the role of regional and trans-regional countries in supporting the new rulers was key in controlling the new conditions, this support may become a factor for increasing external pressure for future shareholding and could intensify the challenge of system-building in Syria.

Economy and reconstruction: The difficult path of reforms

Syria's bankrupt economy, a result of years of war and sanctions, is one of the biggest challenges facing the transitional government. Actions such as increasing the value of the Syrian lira, reducing customs tariffs, and reconstructing the power grid have created hope for the future. However, these actions will require continued sustainable external support, favorable political conditions, and proper security within the country, all of which lack clear and reassuring outlooks.

Abolishing the rationing system for essential goods and increasing salaries for employees signal a move toward economic reforms. However, stabilizing and continuing these reforms in a situation where the political structure has not yet reached a consensus, and where more actions rely on external aid, will be a long and complex path.

Diplomacy and international legitimization

The new ruling party, led by Ahmad al-Sharra (Jolani), is trying to gain both domestic and international legitimacy by changing its social and political approaches. Moving away from revolutionary and religious policies, abolishing compulsory military service, and adopting a diplomatic tone are among the actions taken in this regard.

However, many Western and regional countries still hesitate to recognize the new government due to the background of Ha'yat al-Tahrir al-Sham. The foreign policy of the new rulers, with a focus on reducing tensions with Israel and gaining the support of Arab and non-Arab countries, is still in the process of shaping. However, in the system-building process, as internal and external stakeholders enter the arena and with probable changes in Syria's security and social conditions, this process could face risks.

An ambiguous but vital future

Syria is at a defining moment, and its success or failure could have profound impacts on the entire region. The beginning of the political process for shaping the new government will reveal many previously hidden equations that have caused the new conditions in Syria, despite all the security, economic, and international challenges.

The upcoming conditions are a test for evaluating the new rulers' abilities to manage crises and maintain internal cohesion. The National Conference of Syria is a starting point for defining the future path of the country. Whether this process can result in a sustainable and inclusive outcome or pave the way for tensions and new crises is a question that only time will answer.