John Holder, a reporter for the Washington Post, begins his article with the sentence: "People around the world do not elect the President of the United States, but they live with the consequences." The US presidential election, due to its complexities, remains a peculiar equation made up of concepts such as electoral votes, states, and federalism, until the results are announced. This article does not aim to delve into these details, but in the US election, each candidate needs to secure a total of 270 electoral votes out of 538 to occupy the White House. Polls, analyses, and reports on the election suggest that Harris has secured 232 votes, while Trump has secured 213 votes out of the required total. This near-certainty is due to the nature of states that traditionally support either the Republicans or Democrats. The critical hours ahead for Harris and Trump will be determined by developments in 7 other states with 93 electoral votes. The states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada are the ones that will determine the fate of this election.

Developments in Middle East and their impact on US election

A few days later, one of the two presidential candidates will occupy the White House, and in examining the course of their victory, the developments in West Asia and the Middle East over the past year will be one of the main variables. The election year in the United States began while the Zionist regime was waging a large and bloody war in the Gaza Strip, with almost the entire world involved. As the largest supporter of Israel in the world, the United States was most affected by the decisions and actions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the past year, and it is no exaggeration to say that a large part of the Harris and Trump campaigns were influenced by events in West Asia.

Currently, with 48 hours to go until the election results are announced in the US, reputable polls are unable to predict the likely winner, and this level of uncertainty is a new phenomenon in US election events. The competition is taking place in the closest possible form, and the outcome will be determined by the electoral votes of the swing states. The existence of this level of uncertainty, although dependent on various domestic factors, seems to have been significantly influenced by developments in the international system and order. Some election analysts consider one of the reasons for the decline in votes for each of the two candidates to be their approach to the West Asia region and its most important crisis, namely the Gaza and Lebanon wars.

The bipolarity of war and peace existing in the world and the US has resulted in neither Trump nor Harris being able to gain the trust of their voter base in terms of foreign policy. Harris is accused of having supported the genocide in Gaza while serving in the Republican Biden administration, and Trump is accused of supporting the destructive policies of his close friend Netanyahu if he wins. The way these two US presidential candidates have dealt with the Gaza war in the past and will deal with it in the future will change the fate of each of them in the 2024 election and even in their future politics.

The swing votes in the mentioned states belong to ethnic and religious groups. Arabs, Hindus, Jews, and others in these states consider the issue of the war in Gaza as an important variable when casting their votes. This has created a comical situation, at least for Harris, who is forced to condemn the October 7 events for the Jews and talk about the need to end the war in Gaza for the Muslims. The reality of the US election suggests that the Gaza war has become the Achilles' heel of both candidates, and it remains to be seen who will be able to survive this situation.

Another effective variable in West Asia that has a direct impact on the fate of the future White House occupant is the Islamic Republic of Iran and related issues such as nuclear negotiations, the JCPOA, and Iran's regional presence. This is a file that each of the candidates in this election must consider in their actions. The Democrats, although believing they can contain Iran through democracy, have made statements that suggest the Republicans are no longer seeking to change the government in Iran and have removed the attempt to destroy the system from their agenda. Trump's announcement of this, however, has enraged Zionist extremists and some scattered Iranian opposition groups in the US, even affecting his votes. The reality is that part of Trump's radical base worshipped him for rolling up the Islamic Republic, but the fact that all his attempts have been in vain and the announcement of this reality has disappointed that base. Harris, although returning to a policy of repeating Biden's one-two punch towards Iran, has also taken contradictory stances, sometimes calling Iran America's number one enemy and sometimes talking about the need for diplomacy with Tehran, which has left his supporters confused.

Impact of US election on Gaza war and relations with Iran

Analyzing the impact of the region and war in West Asia on the US election without considering the reciprocal impact of the White House occupant on the future of this region seems incomplete. Although it is impossible to deny the limited impact of the winner's perspective on the future of West Asia, it seems that considering the United States' grand policies towards the Middle East, it is not possible to expect a fundamental change in these policies. The reality is that Washington has fixed and unchangeable principles in supporting the main factor of instability in the region, the Zionist regime, which remains in place in every government. Opposition to any plan that undermines this support, including the two-state solution, ceasefire, or ending settlement construction in Palestine and Gaza, ending aggression against neighboring countries, and even massacre and genocide, is not acceptable in any government, and in this regard, there is no difference between Trump and Harris in the long term. It is possible that in the short term, Harris may put more pressure on Israel to stop its crimes than Trump, or Trump may be less opposed to settlement construction in occupied territories and pursue the policy of destroying Hamas, which is Netanyahu's main demand.

Such a trend will be repeated in the approach of each of the winning candidates in the election to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States' main strategy towards Iran is also fixed and based on hostility and sanctions. Although the US tries to convey that this strategy sometimes advances through diplomacy and sometimes through sanctions, the reality of the past two decades suggests that even apparent diplomacy has been turned into sanctions due to American greed, affecting the lives of ordinary people in Iran. This reality should not be overlooked by the signals sent by Trump, as the main factor in blocking diplomacy, indicating a willingness to get along with Iran. Trump sees the world economically and commercially, which is considered a strength of his presence in the White House by some, but can Iran-US relations be defined or redefined by such a view? Will Tehran's goods be saleable to a merchant like Trump? The fundamental values of the Islamic Republic of Iran in various fields, from domestic policy to foreign policy and worldview, have never been commercial or economic, and never will be.

Tehran does not view the world through the lens of trade, and that's why the duty of supporting the oppressed, which is emphasized by the Leader as the basis of Iran's support for Gaza, will never be bartered with any other goods. Just as Trump and his America will not bring their full support for Israel to the negotiating table. The fundamental principles of each of the two governments on certain strategic issues are deeper than being analyzed as commodities, and that's why the presence of a merchant or academic theorist in the White House makes little difference to Tehran, and Tehran does not consider these tactical differences strategic. Whatever is in its interests and security, Tehran will implement it.